In Kigali, Africa Sets Out to Write Its Own Carbon Market Rules

This week in Kigali, Rwanda, the future of Africa's carbon credit market is being negotiated in the open. The Carbon Markets Africa Summit (CMAS) 2026 runs October 13 to 15 at the Kigali Convention Centre, bringing together delegations from 24 African countries and 45 countries worldwide, with more than 100 speakers, over 50 investors, buyers and financiers, 20 African governments, and more than 40 project developers in attendance, according to figures confirmed ahead of the event by organizers.

The agenda is unusually concrete for a climate conference. Sessions focus on who owns carbon projects, how credits are verified, who carries the risk, and how the benefits are shared. Those are the unglamorous mechanics that determine whether Africa's growing pipeline of carbon projects delivers development finance at home or mainly supplies cheap offsets to foreign buyers.

A market coming of age

The Africa Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI), launched in 2022, set an ambitious target: expanding Africa's participation in the voluntary carbon market so the continent produces 300 million carbon credits annually by 2030. Whether that volume materializes with integrity, and on terms African governments control, is the central question hanging over the summit.

East Africa has emerged as an early mover. Rwanda and Singapore signed a bilateral Implementation Agreement aligned with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, and in January 2026 the two governments began inviting applications for carbon credit projects under it. Credits from authorized projects can be used by eligible Singapore-based companies to offset up to 5 percent of their taxable emissions, subject to both governments' requirements. It is a working example of the government-to-government pipelines now being copied across the region, including a Singapore-Laos Article 6 pipeline that, as of early October, had 58 approved methodologies.

Meanwhile, global rule-making is in motion at the same time. The Article 6.4 Supervisory Body, which oversees the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism, is holding its 23rd meeting in Bonn this week, immediately ahead of CMAS. What comes out of Bonn will shape the standards African projects must meet, which is why the Kigali timing matters.

The ownership question

For Ibrahim Shelleng, Senior Special Assistant to the President on Climate Finance and Stakeholder Engagement for the Government of Nigeria, the summit's value lies in who sets the terms. He described the gathering as an opportunity for continental participants to play a central role in determining how the market develops, framing it as a matter of continental ownership of carbon markets shaped by Africans, for the benefit of Africa.

The practical stakes are high. Decisions on project ownership, data management, verification, and benefit-sharing determine who participates, who bears the risk, and who ultimately profits. Countries across the continent are approaching these decisions from different regulatory and economic starting points. Kenya, Uganda, and South Africa are all strengthening regulatory oversight and modernizing their carbon credit ecosystems to attract investment, while the West African Alliance on Carbon Markets and Climate Finance is pushing for stronger African expertise and regional cooperation so the continent can influence the standards that determine how its projects compete.

"Africa should not just participate in carbon markets. We should help shape them. The opportunity is to build a market that attracts capital, rewards integrity, and ensures that value reaches the countries and communities delivering climate impact."

That line comes from Maggie Kinyanjui, Sourcing Manager for Africa at Climate Impact Partners, and it captures the summit's prevailing mood. For buyers and project developers in the room, the signal is that Africa intends to be a standard-setter, not just a source of supply.

Demand is tightening on the other side of the world

The ownership push arrives as demand for high-integrity credits is accelerating. South Korean airlines are now racing to secure carbon credits under CORSIA, the International Civil Aviation Organization's global market-based system for offsetting international flight emissions. The first CORSIA compliance period covers 2024 through 2026, and airlines must secure and cancel the required eligible emissions units by the end of January 2028.

Eastar Jet became the first South Korean airline to acquire CORSIA-eligible credits, purchasing 100,000 tonnes late last year. Trinity Airways, formerly T'way Air, followed in September 2026 with a purchase of 20,000 tonnes and plans to acquire more by year end. Government data cited in market reporting suggests South Korean carriers face a compliance bill of roughly $235.7 million for the first phase, and supply of CORSIA-eligible units is tightening as demand grows faster than authorized supply.

The mechanics explain the rush. Under CORSIA, participating airlines must offset emissions above a baseline set at 85 percent of 2019 international aviation emissions. Airlines report their 2025 emissions during 2026, and by November 30, 2026, states will use ICAO's Sector's Growth Factor to calculate each operator's 2025 offsetting requirement. The second phase runs from 2027 to 2035, with around 130 countries participating.

Longer-term projections underline why supply matters. MSCI Carbon Markets has estimated that the price of CORSIA-eligible credits could reach $100 per tonne by 2035, with a cumulative airline compliance bill of up to $127 billion between 2024 and 2035 under a high-price scenario. Those are forecasts, not certainties, but they frame the investment case now being pitched to financiers in Kigali: credible African supply feeding a demand market that is structurally short.

What to watch from Kigali

The summit's commercial dimension is deliberately prominent. Dedicated Investor Roundtables are designed to put capital providers, buyers, and project developers in direct conversation, and more than 40 project developers and project representatives spanning nature-based solutions, agriculture, waste, clean cooking, and carbon removals are attending. The organizers, including Rwanda's Ministry of Environment alongside the UNDP, the African Development Bank, the Development Bank of Southern Africa, and AUDA-NEPAD, are betting that face-to-face dealmaking converts ambition into pipelines.

Emmanuelle Nicholls, the summit's Portfolio Director, said the breadth of participation has been encouraging and that the real opportunity lies in bringing decision-makers, financiers, buyers, and project developers into the same room to unlock investment and accelerate the partnerships needed to scale African carbon markets.

The test of the week will be whether Kigali produces more than communiques: signed partnerships, new project pipelines, and clearer rules on ownership and benefit-sharing that give both investors and communities confidence. Africa's carbon market is no longer a promise. It is being priced, regulated, and traded in real time, and the continent is insisting on writing the terms.